Goodbye 2025. It was an eventful year, but is there really such a thing as an uneventful year? If an investor was looking for reasons to worry about their portfolio, 2025 provided plenty of them (as does every other year).
The patient investor was once again rewarded, which is a tale as old as time (maybe this is what Mrs. Potts from Beauty and the Beast was actually referring to).
Our footprint continues to expand, as we now serve ~225 client households (as of 12/30/2025) across 21 different states, and manage over $450 million of assets for them.
While there are many more than there used to be, in the grand scheme of things there are still very few flat fee financial advisors out there that include financial planning and investment management for one flat, transparent price.
We have benefited quite a bit from people seeking that type of service, and the COVID era opened the doors up even more to work with people no matter where they were.
People often ask me “what’s next” for the business. My plan is to keep focusing on doing good work for clients and investing in the resources necessary to do that. I will accept the results that come from that.
We are still a family of 6 and the plan is to keep it that way. Our 4 little ones are now ages 9, 6, 3, and 20 months.
My dear wife continues to grow and expand her pelvic health business, which you may have noticed is in the same building as me. She loves me so much she couldn't stand being more than 20 feet away from me for too long.
Two of the kids below are fully committed to staying up until midnight tonight. Last year one of them made it to 11 pm. The real question is....can dad make it?
On April 2nd, President Trump announced “Liberation Day” where he imposed tariffs on nearly all countries sending global equity markets spiraling.
Back in April there was definitely angst among some clients as global equity markets were down about 18% - 19% from the middle of February. I do not recall any clients straying from my advice of “stay the course”, and staying the course has been quite rewarding so far.
As I write on 12/30, the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT) is up about 21% on the year. That means it has gained about 41% from the 2025 low point in April. Had I told you back in April we would end the year where we are, you would have called me a crazy man. Some thought I was crazy anyway by merely recommending to stay the course. Others viewed the downturn as a buying opportunity.
In financial markets there is a new crisis every year, sometimes multiple times per year. Experienced investors seem to accept the fact that markets go down here and there, sometimes wildly, but the psychological trouble arises from the news that is causing them to go down.
Markets usually do not drop violently for no reason. They drop violently from news stories that may seem a bit scary. That leads some to think “it’s only going to get worse”, “it’s different this time”, “we need to get out before we lose it all”, or “I’m too old for this”.
Those are irrational thoughts for an equity investor. Why?
A recent study I came across that showed 91.4% of worries did not come true for people with generalized anxiety disorder, meaning people spent a lot of time worrying about things that never even happened.
Of course I have written about this before (The Great Crash Ahead) as basically every few months someone brings an apocalyptic prediction/forecast to my attention. I don’t recall one of them ever manifesting to reality.
One of my favorite financial writers, Nick Murray, is famous for writing “The End of The World Has Been Indefinitely Postponed…Again”, after each apparent equity crisis event resolves itself. It's ok to be concerned about what is going on in the world, but I have yet to see evidence that you should let it dictate your portfolio allocation.
Vanguard founder and industry legend, John Bogle, was famous for preaching the importance of patient investing. His infamous quote “Don’t just do something, sit there!” is one of my favorites.
As I mentioned above that worrying is detrimental to one’s health, and that I am often brought doomsday predictions, I decided to look back over the course of my career and see what would have happened if one just sat there?
I entered the industry in January of 2011. It ended up being great timing, but back then it felt like pretty bad timing. Throughout my 15 years the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT) has compounded at 9.95% annually (we do not generally recommend this ETF but it is a good representation of global equity markets).
Imagine that, you could have 4X’d your money by literally doing nothing but staying put while your money grows in your sleep. Maybe Bogle knew a thing or two.
I’ll be frank, US investors have hated owning non-US equities my entire career. We know why this is of course, as the US has been the tech hub of the world and tech stocks have been absolutely on fire. An investor's inclination is to chase performance.
While it is a bit cliché to bring up Japan, I will do so as a reminder. An investor looking backwards in 1990 would have seen Japan’s stock market grew at 22.89% annually since 1970! The US only grew at 11.25% during the same period.
Do you really think a Japanese citizen would have wanted to own anything besides Japanese stocks at that point? Zero chance. Coming into 2025 many US investors failed to see the benefit of diversifying globally.
From 1990 – 2024 the Japanese stock market grew at 1.40% annually, lagging the US which grew at 10.67%.
The US is a unique economy, but there are others out there worth owning. The returns can shift in a hurry, and one must be there for when it happens. The Avantis International Small Cap Value ETF (AVDV) up 50.11% on the year through December 30th, handily outperforming the US market index.
The narrative for years has been that the magnificent 7 stocks are carrying the entire stock market. At least for 2025 that is wildly untrue, as through December 30th only 2 (Nvidia and Google) of the Mag 7 (Nvidia, Google, Amazon, Apple, Tesla, Microsoft, and Meta) stocks are outperforming the Vanguard 500 Index.
2025 showed to be a battle against the old school versus new school "store of value" investors. Gold and silver are hitting all time highs while Bitcoin declines.
Gold is having its best year since 1979, up over 64% through December 30th. Silver has had some the most insane price movements we have ever seen in its history, now up over 160% on the year.
Meanwhile the digital “store of value”, Bitcoin, is down about 5% for 2025. Silver is now nearly tied with Bitcoin in terms of cumulative gain over the last 5 years.
Also interesting is the fact that the world’s second largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, is still down more than 35% from the peak price it reached in 2021.
It is difficult to say what is driving any of these movements other than supply/demand imbalances. Assets with no underlying cash flows are quite difficult to value.
None of these assets are generally recommended by Meredith Wealth Planning, but we are an interested spectator.
I do not give market predictions, as it is intellectually dishonest. Market valuations are indeed high, and they have been for quite some time. This is one reason we use more conservative forward looking return estimates in our planning assumptions, which we will be updating again soon. Expect a 15% - 20% decline in equities at some point in 2026, because on average it happens about once a year. Expect it to be for a very scary reason. Expect to think in the middle of the drop that it will only gets worse before it gets better.
There will be a new Fed Chairman soon, and the expectation is that more interest rate cuts are coming in 2026. Perhaps that is exactly what is being priced into equity prices at the moment, given the rich valuations. The Fed has also stopped unwinding their balance sheet and announced they are now purchasing $40 billion a month in Treasury Bills. Where do they get the money to do that? They create it.
The economic data is a bit mixed at the moment, while the unemployment rate has been increasing we have seen initial jobless claims decreasing. A Minneapolis Fed analysis found that half of the payroll decline can be attributed to reduced immigration. Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, said the US has been overstating jobs by 60k per month.
I have no doubt that 2026 will again be an eventful year, as well every year thereafter. Until the sun burns out I suspect the patient investor will continue to be rewarded. "Don't just do something, sit there".
Cheers to 2026!
Meredith Wealth Planning, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any securities. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investments involve risk and are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed here.
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